Secret Sumatra's Indo discussion, part one

Dean Fergus owns and operates a Sumatran surf camp called Secret Sumatra. After a couple of funky swell seasons he began investigating the prevailing weather patterns and wrote this for anyone considering a surf trip to Indo.

Words and photos supplied by Dean Fergus

SS, lucky guest and the swell that kicked of June 2009

As you may already know we spend our Indo seasons in a place we call Secret Sumatra. We’ve been here four years now and have noticed some shifts in the weather in this time. We have also noticed some very prominent weather patterns repeated over each season, which I’m going to explain. It’s all related to a weather pattern called ENSO – the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

As we look at the seasons we have spent here, we remember our first two seasons to be unbelievably consistent. We were seeing two or three swells of six-feet plus per week, so we we're getting four to six days a week of six to ten-feet surf, especially in the early and late season.

It was heaven, the forecasts were correlating and we learned more about our area than ever before. During those non-stop periods the only thing we were hoping for was a couple of days’ break each week as nine-hour days of surfing were as common as the sunburn and fatigue.

When we hit last year (2008) we really noticed a shift in the weather patterns. Strong high-pressure systems were dominating the Indian Ocean with a summer like pattern in the middle of the Australian winter (our mid season).

It was basically a roadblock, one of those where you can still get through but it has slowed down the traffic considerably. So in this pattern the lows will oscillate much lower, closer to Antarctica. The swells find it hard to penetrate through this roadblock and the forecasts we trusted seemed to be eluding us. They were all saying different things and it was hard to know what to make of it all. 

That was when we learned the highs were dominating. This pattern was mostly in effect over the past two seasons, while the swells were still penetrating, they had nowhere near the force and shape of the previous two seasons.

We had noticed this pattern briefly mid season in the previous years however it was short lived at two to three weeks, not the two to three months that you may have experienced if you were in Indo over the 08-09 dry seasons.

Bodyboarder disappearing on a bottom turn, June 2009

The Light

One thing we noticed this year was that mid June to early July was pumping, similar to what we experienced in ‘06/’07. It was then we saw the highs’ weakening and we were thinking it's happening, it's going back to normal, let the good times roll. This period was short lived, about three weeks. Then we went back to the standard high blocked swells which still make it through it's just like the guts had been knocked out of them, being unorganized and half the expected size.

Then September happened and it was around the middle of the month we noticed the highs’ weakening again with a major improvement in swell, which have continued pumping through October. 

Now back to ENSO. In August I noticed an article on stormsurf.com. It was talking about a possible ENSO pattern coming into effect. They noticed the average surface pressure was lower over Tahiti and higher over Darwin, which apparently is a classic sign of El Nino, along with certain weather patterns like big hurricanes in the States, which happened around the same time as our pumping run of swells in June and July. They said the pattern was pointing towards ENSO however it had retracted, which does happen, and that they would be monitoring those particular areas in the coming months.

It got me thinking it would be good for Indo. From what I had heard El Nino is what the North Pacific loves: Hawaii pumps in El Nino patterns but if we are seeing swells coincide with these events, is it a sign for the next few Indo seasons?

So at this point I’m thinking maybe it's just a coincidence, then the waves pumped late season and that's when I saw an article on another surf forecasting site, Surfline.com. The article was confirming that the ENSO is in effect. Which made my next observation interesting, pumping swells late season in Indo coinciding with pumping swells hitting Hawaii in September. Now I'm starting to feel this isn't a coincidence and it's getting me excited thinking about the forthcoming Indo season being a repeat of what we experienced in '06 and '07 - non stop swells.

This particular June swell was the cleanest and most perfect swell of the season 

For a more in-depth look at ENSO check the below links:

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml

http://www.surfline.com/forecast/abnormal-june-2009---el-nino-to-blame_28651/

http://www.surfline.com/forecast/el-nio-pacific-outlook--breaking-down-the-fall-winter-pacific-season_30664/

http://www.surfline.com/forecast/el-nio-atlantic-outlook--breaking-down-the-fall-winter-atlantic-season_31044/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño-Southern_Oscillation

A guest sitting deep, Late Season 09

Wow betide, there’s a new world champ Amaury breaks down the door, ever so quietly.... READ MORE HERE >

Shark Island The cursed comp comes good.... READ MORE HERE >

Who is Chris Wilson? It’s Q&A time!... READ MORE HERE >

• 1
• 2
• 3
• 4
• Next